Conflicts, Chronology and Doctrine in Paul’s Letters and Acts –Comments on an Article by Gerd Lüdemann

Abstract: Paul’s authentic letters and Acts often differ significantly in their representation of the same events. This article elaborates on two problems associated with accepting only Paul as a valid source for making reconstructions of his interaction with other people. First, Paul has important information gaps that Acts plausibly fills up. Second, at certain spots Paul seems to distort historical realities that are more believably represented by Acts. Seven conflicts in which Paul was involved, including some with the Jerusalem church, are analysed to establish the development of Paul’s religious ideas and some of the predicaments he was in. Using formal analysis, I then argue that Paul’s version of Christianity, despite the vehemence of the disputes, followed quite naturally from his involvement with the earlier community of followers of Jesus.

See:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351331941_Conflicts_Chronology_and_Doctrine_in_Paul’s_Letters_and_Acts_-_Comments_on_an_Article_by_Gerd_Ludemann

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Book Review of Sayaka Funada-Classen: The Origins of War in Mozambique. A History of Unity and Division

The Mozambican civil war remains a relevant topic for continuing study. Where earlier publications about the war stressed the rôle of the racist minority regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa, more recent analyses have tended to look (also) at the way in which Frelimo implemented its political dominance over the Mozambican population after and even before independence. Funada-Classen’s book fits in with the latter trend and has added valuable data to the literature. The degree to which she has succeeded in providing wholly satisfactory interpretations of these data will have to be discussed.

See:

Book review Funada-Classen Origins war Mozambique;

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Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral’s theory (English version)

Madeleine McCann Case: Gonçalo Amaral’s theory implies that Madeleine’s parents concealed her body after a fatal accident when they were having dinner at the Tapas Restaurant with friends, checking on their children from time to time. The theory is popular, but it contains very problematic aspects. I conclude that the group does not try to hide from the world the concealment of a dead body, but the probability that the group’s own system, of abandonment with checks, was the main cause of the disappearance of Madeleine. Below follows a link to the English translation of a series of four articles originally published in Jornal Tribuna de Macau in May 2018. Many thanks to Sérgio Terra for facilitating the series.

To read the full series of four articles in English translation, please go to:

Disappearance Madeleine McCann;

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A saída da Madeleine McCann: a hipótese negligenciada

(English below)

Investigações sobre o desaparecimento da Madeleine Beth McCann em Praia da Luz na noite de 03 de maio de 2007 sofreram dificuldades pela circunstância que as testemunhas mais importantes nem sempre foram claras e consistentes nas suas declarações, levantando suspeitos sobre a qualidade destas declarações e o motivo para divulgarem desinformação. O presente análise argumenta que a dinâmica de abandono-com-checks foi a causa principal, e não só um pano de fundo, do desaparecimento, ou seja saída pelos seus próprios esforços, da Madeleine.

Investigations into the disappearance of Madeleine Beth McCann in Praia da Luz during the night of 03 May 2007 have been hampered by the fact that the most important witnesses were not always clear and consistent in their statements, raising suspicions about the quality of these statements and the reason for spreading disinformation. The present analysis argues that the abandonment-with-checks dynamics was the main cause, and not just a background, of the disappearance, that is to say, the exit by her own efforts, of Madeleine.

Consulte o PDF: Desaparecimento Saída da Madeleine McCann; ou visite: academia.

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Probabilistic Presidency in Mozambique: Anatomy of a Scrambled Election

The Mozambican presidential election of 1999 was officially won by Frelimo candidate Chissano against Renamo candidate Dhlakama. Renamo has always questioned that result. Recently published data on election results at local level make it possible to assess the claim that the exclusion of hundreds of thousands of votes might have changed the election result. The statistical analysis provided here shows that this is indeed a possibility that cannot be ignored. Even if it cannot be proved that Dhlakama really won the election, it is also clear from the data that Chissano could not claim to have been the preferential choice of the majority of the voters in 1999 either. Although international election observers acknowledged the official result, the annulment of the election would therefore have been a more reasonable response. The continued relevance of the 1999 presidential election is indicated.
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Why Sen’s Liberal Paradox is Unsound

Why Sen’s Liberal Paradox is Unsound

André van Dokkum, 1 December 2014

In his book Collective Choice and Individual Welfare, Amartya Sen (1970: ch. 6*) derives a mathematical inconsistency, labelled the “liberal paradox” that is interpreted as showing “liberalism” in conflict with two other concepts combined, namely the Pareto condition (P) and the condition of universal domain (U). Within a context of a number of alternatives to choose from by a certain collective of individuals, condition P entails that when all individuals (of the collective) prefer some alternative x over another alternative y, the collective (social) preference is such that x is preferred over y. Condition U entails that all logically possible combinations of individual preference orderings over the alternatives are allowed as input for establishing collective preference relations (41). “Liberalism” is defined as condition L as follows (87):
“For each person i there is at least one pair of distinct alternatives (x, y) such that he is decisive in the social choice between them in either order, i.e., xPiyxPy, and yPixyPx.” (The Ps here stand for “preference” and are not to be confused with the condition P.)

Sen proves (87-88) that the conditions U, P, and L are inconsistent in the sense that not always a social top preference (cf. 52) can be identified because of the requirement of “acyclicity” (no cycles in the collective preference relations concerning the alternatives). This requirement can be violated in certain combinations of individual preference orderings. To see this it is best to quote the crucial part of Sen’s proof of the inconsistency for four distinct alternatives and a condition L* which is a special case of condition L concerning “at least two” individuals (j and k) who can each decide over a pair of alternatives:
“Assume […] that xPky, zPjw and i: (wPix & yPiz). […] By condition L*, xPy & zPw. By condition P, wPx & yPz. But this […] violates acyclicity.”
Thus L* cannot be satisfied when P and U also have to be satisfied. The same result follows immediately for condition L. “Liberalism” in the form of condition L as given in the proof, cannot co-exist with P and U together.

“Liberal values” are given as “to permit [someone] to do what he wants, everything else remaining the same” (87). This, however, is not captured by the definition of condition L. It is not visible from individual k’s preference between x and y that this individual makes only a personal choice to do what he wants, everything else remaining the same. That there is a choice to make between x and y says nothing about the internal structure of the alternatives x and y. This is made clear by Sen himself in the book’s chapter 6 (without asterisk) where a personal choice is given as against a background of circumstances, called omega, that would have no influence on the personal choice to make and vice versa. Consequently, this omega may vary (79) and the personal choice to make may vary, each without impacting on the other. For determining the collective outcome this means that individuals may exercise their right to decide a pair of personal options with background omega more than once as soon as omega knows more than one manifestation. The proof given above, however, would suggest that such a right is to be exercised only once, over a pair of two internally undifferentiated alternatives to be dealt with collectively. For convenience, let us study an example given by Sen in the chapter 6 without asterisk.

A person A is confronted with a choice between sleeping on his back or on his belly, say x and y respectively, and a person B is confronted with a choice between painting his kitchen walls pink or crimson, say z and w respectively (79). Sen explicitly couples these choices; B’s options function as the omega for A. I add that A’s options function as the omega of B. Mutually, the omegas should not affect the collective outcome if A and B are allowed to enforce their respective choices of sleeping mode and kitchen walls, according to liberalism in the form of condition L (or L*). Now what are the social (collective) states, the alternatives, to be ordered here? They are not x, y, z and w. There is no collective choice to be made between A’s sleeping on his belly and B‘s painting’s the walls pink, for instance. Rather we have to remember that the respective omegas have to be reckoned with as part of the social states to be ordered. Thus the social states to be ordered are combinations of x, y, z and w as follows:

p: x & z
q: x & w
r: y & z
s: y & w

Suppose that A prefers x over y and B prefers z over w. The choices to be made are, however, between p, q, r and s as given in the table, and this should not be confused, as Sen appears to do, with choices between x, y, z and w. By “liberal values”, we then get as collective preferences: (1) p > r; (2) p > s; (3) q > s; (4) p > q; (5) r > s. The collective preference between q and r cannot be determined, because A’s preference for x would force B to abandon the preference for z, and vice versa, in conflict with liberal values as defined. In this sense condition U is violated. Nevertheless it is easy to see from results (1)-(5) that p constitutes the choice set (optimum collective decision) of the set of four alternatives and A and B have their way both as they like.

We can conclude that condition L (or L*) conflicts with condition U directly, not just through intermediation via condition P as Sen’s theorem has it. There is nothing paradoxical about this. Condition U is about what should count as an admissible (and if admitted and submitted, also required) preference ordering to be processed; if any admissible preference ordering in a certain social environment contains effects in which one person’s ordering should effect another person’s preference ordering, the conclusion to draw is simply that that social environment is not, or not wholly, liberal in the sense of the definition of “liberal values”.

Sen-liberal-paradox-unsound-1 Continue reading

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A necessary book: the political biography of Uria Timóteo Simango

Review of:
Barnabé Lucas Ncomo
Uria Simango. Um homem, uma causa

Maputo: Edições Novafrica. 2004, third edition, 2009, now available at Amazon.
ISBN 978-1468177596

Almost four decades ago, a coup d’état by army forces in Portugal on 25 April 1974, partly provoked by the colonial war effort in Mozambique, led to Mozambican’s independence, and according to Samuel Huntington formed the beginning of a “third wave of democratization” that produced multi-party systems in many parts of the world. In Mozambique, however, the Mozambican people did not have any political influence on their new national government under Frelimo. Even before independence on 25 June 1975, the first political prisoners were taken, and thereafter Frelimo’s grip on the population was tightened even more. Reaction would soon come in the form of a catastrophic civil war between Frelimo and Renamo, the latter an organization that matched internal discontent with apartheid-South African interests and military logistics. The war ended only in 1992.

Could it have been different? Barnabé Lucas Ncomo’s book Uria Simango. Um homem, uma causa (Uria Simango. A man, a cause), would suggest it could have, at least as far as Frelimo’s own political behaviour is concerned. Ncomo argues that co-founder of Frelimo Uria Simango would have represented a more peaceful approach to government than the heavy-handed “correct line” of Mozambique’s first president Samora Machel. The Frelimo of 1974 under the leadership of Machel and Marcelino dos Santos was quite different from the Frelimo that started in 1962 under the leadership of Eduardo Mondlane and Simango. Certain analysts of Frelimo of the 1970s and 1980s, such as Munslow, Christie, Saul and Alan and Barbara Isaacman, set a trend of seeing Machel’s ascendency, and more particularly his so-called “revolutionary line”, as something that evolved naturally within Frelimo against the supposed negativity of “reactionaries” and “dissidents” who failed to understand the “correct” vision of what was independence all about and/or had perfidious political ideas anyway. Often Simango, vice-president, interim-president and coordinator of the council of the presidency of Frelimo from 1962 until 1969, has been targeted by authors, including Euro-American ones, as a specifically malicious example of “reactionary” thought and practice. Ncomo’s work is a book-length frontal attack on that view. He endeavours to show that Simango was a through-and-through devoted independence activist who wanted to safeguard “democracy” against “totalitarianism” once Mozambique would be independent.

To tell Simango’s story in this way is welcome, even if only to restore the balance. The trend mentioned above, in all its one-sidedness, still exerts influence. Although analyses of early Frelimo history are no longer as hagiographic as for instance Christie’s biography of Machel, significant lacunae in our understanding remain of early Frelimo history. I have seen written as late as 2009 that certain early events within Frelimo are “well-known and analysed in detail”, with reference to work published in 1975 and 1983. Such a contented attitude does not stimulate asking questions about what really happened. Because overviews of the early period are repeatedly presented in works about Mozambique, one can easily fall victim to the illusion that one knows the story. However, our hiatuses in knowledge concerning early Frelimo history are numerous, not in the least because the literature of the mentioned Euro-American authors was not much interested in challenging the “correct line” and their proponents. Many witnesses could have been interviewed in the past few decades but were not, and for some it is now too late already. In this sense, the mentioned Euro-American authors, by promoting a political quarantine (packed as science and journalism) around historical questions have done a bad service to Mozambican 20th century historiography. It is fortunate that Ncomo presents a wealth of data from his own interviews, providing invaluable new insights. Some of the interviewees are kept anonymous, which may be considered sub-optimal but is considering the sensitivity of the topic totally understandable.

The situation in the literature had improved already with the publication in 2000 of João Cabrita’s book on early Frelimo history and the Mozambican civil war. Cabrita’s book is now firmly established as a reference work within Anglophone Africanist studies on Mozambique. Ncomo’s book can in a way be seen as a follow-up on the one by Cabrita. It has yet to establish itself as a work of reference, but now with its availability at Amazon its outreach may improve. Except from details about the life and thoughts of Simango, a protestant pastor born in Sofala province in 1926 who was occupied with nationalist activities at least since 1959, Ncomo also provides numerous important details on events within Frelimo that shed new light on such topics as the school at the Mozambique Institute in Dar-es-Salam and Frelimo’s Second Congress. He also writes extensively on the dark episodes of the capture, mock trials and secret – and still publicly unclear – executions of the purported “reactionaries” which followed the unsuccessful attempt by some of them, including Simango himself, to establish a multi-party system in Mozambique at the time of independence. In this sense Ncomo’s book is not only welcome but necessary; these topics have been insufficiently analysed for too long. For instance, earlier authors have characteristically not drawn attention to Mondlane’s analyses of racialist and ethnicist solidarities in his master’s and doctoral theses, depicting him – incorrectly – as defending a non-racialist view of the liberation struggle, in contrast with “less enlightened” dissidents. Ncomo takes up such matters, even if rather briefly. As for the civil war, while as its partial explanation it is now widely accepted that Frelimo acted irresponsibly after independence, for instance in dealing with local customs and by forcing people into communal villages, it is rare to analyse Frelimo’s political attitude with a focus on the much earlier events of the 1960s. Ncomo does this in ways more elaborate, more credible, and also with far better substantiation than the abovementioned Euro-American authors. For this reason alone I would not hesitate to consider the book compulsory reading within the field of Mozambican political history. It is a pity that Ncomo does not include more debate with the authors mentioned above.

More research is still necessary. It is doubtful whether Simango was already a multi-party proponent in 1969 and it would be interesting to know more about how the idea of multi-partyism developed with him and others in the period before 1974. Another thing that needs scrutiny, in my view, is Ncomo’s repeated stress on a regionalist attitude of the “southern wing” of Machel, Chissano and others from south Mozambique. Actually, both the “orthodox” authors from the 1970s and 1980s and Ncomo see Mondlane as strongly associated with the circle around Machel and dos Santos, for ideological and ethnic/regional reasons respectively, coupled with a process of increased marginalization of Simango that would culminate in the events of 1969 and 1970 when Simango, after Mondlane’s death, was straightforwardly worked out of the way and eventually expulsed from Frelimo, leaving Machel, dos Santos and their adherents as the leaders. These visions on the clique ignore the possibility that Mondlane’s own positioning within Frelimo may have changed, and actually weakened, in or around 1966 when Machel became army commander. Initially Mondlane does not seem to have been insensitive to ethnic balancing within Frelimo, and on the other hand he was never, despite some claims to the contrary, an enthusiastic Marxist-Leninist. In any case, the gist of Ncomo’s book that Simango’s political fate within Frelimo was largely due to unconstitutional manoeuvres by his adversaries would be enhanced rather than diminished by a critical view on Mondlane’s positioning within Frelimo. The question of the nature of the relation between Mondlane and Machel is just one more question of early Frelimo history that awaits answering. Let us hope that Ncomo will publish more findings in book form in the future.

André van Dokkum

(An earlier version of this review appeared in the June 2012 issue of the Newsletter of the Netherlands Association of African Studies)

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Duprez and Baland wrong about labeling and increase of child labor

Duprez and Baland state that labeling for child labor could lead to an increase and not a decrease in child labor. The reasoning they employ, however, is flawed because they assume that certain correlations would be linear, which is not warranted by the mathematics they present and also intrinsically unlikely. The document herewith explains this:

VanDokkum-reaction-DuprezBaland-280905-1[1]

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