Probabilistic Presidency in Mozambique: Anatomy of a Scrambled Election

The Mozambican presidential election of 1999 was officially won by Frelimo candidate Chissano against Renamo candidate Dhlakama. Renamo has always questioned that result. Recently published data on election results at local level make it possible to assess the claim that the exclusion of hundreds of thousands of votes might have changed the election result. The statistical analysis provided here shows that this is indeed a possibility that cannot be ignored. Even if it cannot be proved that Dhlakama really won the election, it is also clear from the data that Chissano could not claim to have been the preferential choice of the majority of the voters in 1999 either. Although international election observers acknowledged the official result, the annulment of the election would therefore have been a more reasonable response. The continued relevance of the 1999 presidential election is indicated.

Available on: http://macua.blogs.com/files/van-dokkum-probabilistic-presidency-mozambique-20170411.pdf